Kev nce siab ntawm cov khoom siv roj teeb nqi txij li pib xyoo 2021 ua rau muaj kev xav txog kev xav tau kev puas tsuaj lossis kev ncua, thiab tau ua rau muaj kev ntseeg tias cov tuam txhab tsheb tuaj yeem hloov cov kev nyiam rau lawv lub tsheb hluav taws xob.

Cov pob nqi qis tshaj plaws tau ib txwm ua lithium-iron-phosphate, lossisLFP.Tesla tau siv LFP rau nws cov qauv tsim hauv Suav teb txij li xyoo 2021. Lwm cov tuam txhab tsheb xws li Volkswagen thiab Rivian kuj tau tshaj tawm tias lawv yuav siv LFP hauv nws cov qauv pheej yig tshaj.

Nickel-cobalt-manganese, lossis NCM, roj teeb yog lwm qhov kev xaiv.Lawv xav tau ntau npaum li cas ntawm lithium rauLFP, tab sis nws muaj xws li cobalt, uas yog kim thiab nws cov txheej txheem ntau lawm yog controversial.

Cobalt hlau nqi yog nce 70% nyob rau hauv lub xyoo.Nickel tau pom qhov kev kub ntxhov tsis ntev los no tom qab qhov nyem luv luv ntawm LME.Tus nqi npib tsib xee peb lub hlis yog ua lag luam nyob rau hauv ib hnub ntawm $ 27,920- $ 28,580 / mt rau lub Tsib Hlis 10.

Lub caij no, cov nqi lithium tau nce ntau dua 700% txij li pib xyoo 2021, uas tau ua rau muaj kev dhia loj hauv cov nqi roj teeb.
Raws li S&P Ntiaj Teb Kev Ua Lag Luam Kev Txawj Ntse, Suav roj teeb hlau nqi hauv lub Peb Hlis tau nce 580.7% rau xyoo rau LFP roj teeb ntawm ib duas las ib kilogram, nce mus txog ze li $ 36 / kwh.NCM roj teeb tau nce 152.6% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm rau $ 73-78 / kwh hauv Lub Ob Hlis

“Txoj kevlithiumtau raug nqi ntau dua 12 lub hlis dhau los.Nws yog qhov luv nqi me dua li qhov koj xav tau [tawm tsam NCM] thiab ib zaug koj pov rau hauv qhov ua tau zoo nws yog qhov kev txiav txim siab nyuaj dua uas nws yuav tau ua.Tej zaum koj yuav xav muab qee qhov kev ua tau zoo rau tus nqi, tab sis nws tsis pheej yig dua hnub no."ib tus neeg muag khoom cobalt hydroxide tau hais.

"Muaj kev txhawj xeeb, qhov tseeb, vim tias tus nqi ntawm LFP tau pheej hmoo ntau dhau rau ntu uas nws lub hom phiaj, uas yog cov roj teeb uas tsis muaj nqi," concured a lithium producer source.

"Tsis muaj lwm txoj hauv kev rau cov roj teeb nickel-intensive (cov uas muaj 8 feem npib tsib xee lossis ntau dua) nyob rau lub sijhawm luv mus rau nruab nrab.Rov qab mus rau qis-nickel NMC roj teeb rov qhia txog kev txhawj xeeb txog kev siv cobalt, thaum LFP roj teeb tseem tsis tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov kev ua tau zoo thiab tseem muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm qhov kub thiab txias tsis zoo piv nrog cov roj teeb nickel-intensive, "Alice Yu, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas laus, S&P Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam Kev Txawj Ntse. .

Thaum cov tshuaj lom neeg nyiam nyob hauv Suav teb yog LFP roj teeb, nws feem ntau xav tias NCM yuav ua qhov loj dua hauv EU kev lag luam - qhov twg cov neeg siv khoom nyiam cov tsheb uas coj lawv hla lub tebchaws lossis hla teb chaws ntawm tus nqi tsawg tshaj plaws.

“Thaum saib txog kev tsim cov roj teeb, peb yuav tsum tshuaj xyuas qhov yooj.Tam sim no muaj tus nqi sib npaug ntawm LFP thiab NCM.Yog tias LFP pheej yig dua ntau dua peb tuaj yeem ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim khoom, tab sis tam sim no peb yuav tsum tsim NCM vim nws yog cov khoom lag luam hwm."Lub tsheb OEM hais.

Ib lub tsheb thib ob OEM tau hais tawm cov lus hais tias, "LFP roj teeb yuav nyob ntawm no rau cov tsheb nkag, tab sis tsis tau txais rau cov tsheb hwm".

Limiting factor

Lithium cov khoom tseem yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb loj rau EV kev ua lag luam thiab qee yam uas tuaj yeem nres txhua lub tuam txhab tau yooj yim hloov mus rau LFP.

Kev tshawb fawb los ntawm S&P Global Commodity Insights qhia tau hais tias yog tias tag nrho cov lithium mines hauv cov raj xa dej tuaj hauv online hauv lub sijhawm thov, nrog rau cov lus qhia tshwj xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv roj teeb, tseem yuav muaj 220,000 mt tsis txaus los ntawm 2030, piv txwv li kev thov nce mus txog 2 lab mt ntawm kawg ntawm lub xyoo caum.

Feem ntau ntawm Western lithium cov neeg tsim khoom muaj qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm lawv cov khoom tsim tau booked nyob rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus ntev, thiab Suav converters tau tibneeg hu tauj coob nrog ob qho tib si qhov chaw thiab mus sij hawm ntev daim ntawv cog lus.

"Muaj ntau qhov kev thov, tab sis peb tsis muaj cov khoom siv tam sim no," said lub chaw tsim khoom lithium."Peb tsuas muaj cov ntim muaj thaum tus neeg siv khoom muaj qee qhov teeb meem, lossis tshem tawm cov khoom xa tuaj rau qee qhov laj thawj, txwv tsis pub nws tag nrho tau booked," nws hais ntxiv.

Qhov kev txhawj xeeb loj zuj zus txog lithium, thiab lwm yam roj teeb hlau, dhau los ua qhov txwv tsis pub tsav EV kev saws me nyuam tau ua rau cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam nce mus koom nrog sab saud ntawm kev lag luam.

General Motors yuav nqis peev rau hauv kev txhim kho ntawm Controlled Thermal Resources 'Hell's Kitchen lithium project hauv California.Stellantis, Volkswagen thiab Renault koom tes nrog Vulcan Resources kom ruaj ntseg cov khoom siv los ntawm Zero Carbon project hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees.

Sodium-ion lwm txoj

Raws li qhov xav tau cov khoom tsis txaus ntawm lithium, cobalt thiab npib tsib xee, kev lag luam roj teeb tau tshawb nrhiav lwm txoj hauv kev.Sodium-ion roj teeb yog suav tias yog ib qho kev xaiv zoo tshaj plaws.

Sodium-ion feem ntau yuav ntiav cov pa roj carbon hauv cov anode thiab cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm ib pawg hu ua Prussian Blue hauv cathode.Muaj "cov hlau uas tuaj yeem siv tau ntawm Prussian Blue, thiab nws yuav txawv nyob ntawm lub tuam txhab," raws li Venkat Srinivasan, tus thawj coj ntawm US-based Argonne Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science (ACCESS).

Qhov txiaj ntsig loj tshaj plaws rau sodium-ion yog nws cov nqi tsim khoom qis, cov peev txheej tau hais.Vim tias muaj ntau ntawm sodium hauv ntiaj teb, cov roj teeb no tuaj yeem raug nqi yuav luag 3% -50% tsawg dua lithium-ion roj teeb.Lub zog ceev yog piv rau LFP.

Tam sim no Amperex Technology (CATL), yog ib lub tuam txhab roj teeb loj tshaj plaws hauv Suav teb, tau nthuav tawm xyoo tas los nws thawj tiam ntawm sodium-ion roj teeb, nrog rau nws cov AB roj teeb pob tov, uas qhia tau hais tias nws muaj peev xwm ua ke nrog sodium-ion hlwb thiab lithium-ion. cell nyob rau hauv ib pob.Cov txheej txheem tsim khoom thiab cov khoom siv ntawm sodium-ion roj teeb tau sib xws nrog cov roj teeb lithium-ion tam sim no, CATL tau hais.

Tab sis ua ntej sodium-ion tuaj yeem ncav cuag kev lag luam loj, qee qhov kev txhawj xeeb yuav tsum tau daws.

Tseem muaj qee qhov kev txhim kho kom ua tiav ntawm electrolyte thiab sab anode.

Muab piv rau LFP-raws li roj teeb, sodium-ion muaj zog dua ntawm kev tso tawm, tab sis tsis muaj zog ntawm kev them nyiaj.

Qhov tseem ceeb txwv tsis pub tshaj yog tias qhov no tseem yog qee lub sijhawm los ntawm kev muaj nyob rau theem kev lag luam.

Ib yam li ntawd, ntau lab nyiaj daus las ntawm kev nqis peev tau ua rau hauv cov khoom siv lithium-ion raws li lithium- thiab nickel-nplua nuj chemistry.

"Peb yeej yuav saib ntawm sodium-ion tab sis peb yuav tsum ua ntej tsom mus rau cov thev naus laus zis uas twb muaj lawm thiab nqa cov nroj tsuag hauv online," ib lub tuam txhab roj teeb tau hais.